In 3 minutes, Magraff shows "LiveScribe", a nifty tech I was too distracted during the simulcast to give proper time - gonna have to go back on that one.
"I am interested in the exceptions to the rule that we don't see coming: the computer, 9/11, Harry Potter, the Beatles, Google...
Unboundedness: Respect the unobserved -
The farmer feeds a turkey for 100 days. the turkey based on 100 days of experience, believes the farmer is to be trusted. Day 101, the farmer kills the turkey. For the turkey, being killed is a black swan...but not for the farmer. Banking, as a business, is a turkey.
I don't understand how you could be skeptical about religion, and not be skeptical about economics.
Uncertainty principle isn't a theory, it's Pakistan.
Experts aren't. Never take advice from someone wearing a tie.
Inverse Principle. Everything is non-linear, except for the exceptions. How easy is it to reverse engineer an ice cube from water?
I advocate this: don't mess with a complex system. Leave nature alone.
Plato and Karl Marx. The only difference is Plato had better bathing habits. They tried to teach, to force us to use our knowledge to make decisions. I propose we use our lack of knowledge and ignorance of situations to make decisions.
You have to make a decision based on what you are willing to lose, not history.
Chris Anderson 3 minuter - editors Wired, wrote Long Tail - DIYDrones.com.
- A predator drone costs $4MM. What is the minimum cost to build a UAV?
- First he weaponized LEGO's, building a LEGO Mindstorm UAV for under $1000
- Next, he attached a mobile phone to a model plane for a sub- $500 UAV
- Last, a balloon. UAV for under $100.
Peter Schwartz "The Future isn't what it used to be" (Paul Valery)
The future is more uncertain that it has been historically, because we are generating the future ourselves, now on the fly.
4 really big questions for the future:
1. Will there be a BIG WORLD WAR involving US/China/the Islamic World/India?
Wars are driven by (in order)
- Honor - Language and rhetoric - do we , can we treat each other with dignity?
- Fear - To reduce we share responsibility (e.g., joint military patrols)
- Self-Interest - China/India/US don't want to upset the boat. Interestingly, he leaves the Islamic world out of this discussion
2. Will the GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH we have seen in the 2nd half of the 20th century continue?
Shows comparison between Nigeria and Singapore. Nigeria with resources, Singapore without, yet Singapore has greatly surpassed Nigerian GDP. Schwartz posits its due to organization and creativity. Interestingly, a Singapore resident @ TED told me that Singapore's productivity was at the cost of creativity - that the school systems fous on rote passage of volume information, not creative interpretation...
3. Will the fruits of economic growth be relatively EVENLY SPREAD ?
Wikipedia is the best anti war/equality/opportunity tool - projections are for 3B people in the next 50 years will emerge out of poverty
4. Will we be able to achieve growth in an ECOLOGICALLY SUSTAINABLE manner?
He proposes this formula
i = p (population) x a (affluence) x t (technology)
- Population will not double again, so that's slowing down
- Affluence - we do want them to participate
- Technology is the real lever on the system - Craig Venter is the James Watt of biotechnology
3 minutes from Gregory Petsko - we are facing an epidemic of neurological diseases on a global scale. Our populations are aging - and as we age, we are more susceptible to neurologic disorder.
- Lower your risk of Parkinson's- have a latte and avoid head injuries and the avian flu
- Lower your risk of Alzheimer's - Eat more fish, keep your blood pressure down
Sue Goldie, decision scientist on "Analysis Advocacy and Action"
"We must never fail to stay aware of the individual tragedies and struggles that are underneath the population statistics"
Learned young of the failure of systems. Born to a young unwed mom she never met. Bounced around through foster care. Learned about resiliency and tenacity. After residency at Yale, in New Haven, she saw her next system failure - US health care
She articulates 3 viruses of Public Health Importance:
- HIV--> leads in an average of 12 years to AIDS
- undefined B and C --> ~25 years to Liver Cancer
- Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) --> ~30 years to Cervical Cancer. World's most common STD. 90% of cases are in poorer countries
Felix Kramer - 3 minutes on the automobile - "Hope in the Car Industry"
- Electricity isn't just different, it's better than gas
- Today's hybrid evolves into the plug in hybrid and a interested coalition has arisen
- What's taking so long for green products to improve? The wait for version 1 of the plug in hybrid...
- Felix's website : http://www.calcars.org
Larry Burns of GM (visionary-in-chief)- Driverless Cars and the DARPA challenge
Larry Shows the BOSS driverless vehicle.
Why is is that GM had to build a driverless SUV? Didn't they have something smaller? And "BOSS"? c'mon, people.
Walter Isaacson - What does the future hold for the art of narration?
"Narrative is connecting the dots. People select facts, determine how they play together and how they add up. They tend to be chronological. Tend to be linear. Tend to work better in an analog world. So how do we nurture and preserve the beauty of narrative in an iterative, collaborative, interactive age.
The Iliad, the Odyssey were collaborative processes, not written by a single writer, but evolved through both telling and hearing the story. Everyone at Aspen Institute does Antigone. The song of Roland has no single author or narrator - but is a result of scholars and scribes recounting and embellishing, editing and recombinating.
The invention of the printing press made narrative less collaborative and iterative - because the narrative gets "carved in lead" - and so, effectively, began mass media, and centrally controlled narrative...
But it seems that current interactive narrative is just old wine poured in new glasses - isn't YouTube just redistributed video. We haven't really evolved narrative to into a new form using the new technologies.
Where are there glimmers? Wikis. Books in the future will return to being unwritten. dynamic. alive (like the old Iliad). Alternate Reality Games (ARG) - participatory narratives played out in the real and virtual worlds...
We are featherless bipeds that tell stories. Let's keep doing that - and bring in collaboration. Participation. The wisdom of crowds..."
3 minutes from Ze Frank in Aspen
- Is it dark in here or is it just me? - God
- Are you really that much of an idiot? - my mom
A question is a complicated way of announcing your stupidity.